Alabama vs. Mississippi State odds, spread, time: 2023 college football picks, Week 5 predictions fr

July 2024 ยท 4 minute read
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No. 12 Alabama (3-1) will try to extend its winning streak to three games when it travels to Mississippi State (2-2) on Saturday night. The Crimson Tide lost to then-No. 11 Texas at home in Week 2, but they have responded with wins over South Florida and No. 15 Ole Miss. Mississippi State is trying to snap a two-game losing skid following losses to then-No. 14 LSU and South Carolina. The Bulldogs have lost the last 15 meetings between these teams, with their most recent victory coming in 2007. 

Kickoff is set for 9 p.m. ET at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field in Starkville, Miss. The Tide are favored by 15 points in the latest Mississippi State vs. Alabama odds, while the over/under is 46.5 points, per SportsLine consensus. Before entering any Alabama vs. Mississippi State picks, you'll want to see the college football predictions from the model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Since its inception, it has generated a stunning profit of nearly $2,500 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

The model has set its sights on Mississippi State vs. Alabama. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several college football odds and betting lines for Alabama vs. Mississippi State:

Why Mississippi State can cover

Mississippi State has enough offensive firepower to trouble Alabama, scoring at least 30 points in three of its first four games. Quarterback Will Rogers threw for a career-high 487 yards in the loss to South Carolina, hitting the 400-yard mark for the ninth time in his career. He has completed 70% of his passes over the last four seasons, racking up 11,668 yards and 88 touchdowns. 

Rogers ranks third in league history in passing yards, and he is tied for fifth in touchdown passes. Wide receiver Lideatrick Griffin had a school-record 256 receiving yards against the Gamecocks, despite catching just seven passes. Mississippi State has won five of its last seven games, and Alabama has only covered the spread once in its last seven road games.

Why Alabama can cover

Alabama's defense has bounced back from the loss to Texas, allowing a combined 13 points in wins over South Florida and Ole Miss. The Crimson Tide outscored Ole Miss 18-3 in the second half last week, as quarterback Jalen Milroe completed 17 of 21 passes for 225 yards and a touchdown. Senior running back Jase McClellan led the rushing attack with 17 carries for 105 yards and a touchdown, averaging 6.2 yards per carry. 

McClellan has a team-high 263 rushing yards and two touchdowns this season, while senior running back Roydell Williams has added 198 yards and a score. Mississippi State's defense has been terrible over the last two weeks, allowing 41 points against LSU and 37 points against South Carolina. The Crimson Tide have won 15 straight meetings between these teams, covering the spread in each of the last five. See which team to pick here. 

How to make Mississippi State vs. Alabama picks

The model has simulated Alabama vs. Mississippi State 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning Over, and it's also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in well over 50% of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Mississippi State vs. Alabama, and which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Alabama vs. Mississippi State spread to jump on, all from the advanced computer model that's up nearly $2,500 on its top-rated college football spread picks since its inception, and find out.

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